Nomura Launches The China Compass
Hong Kong, May 3, 2012 – Nomura, the global investment bank, has launched a new Anchor Report, The China compass, containing two proprietary statistical tools: a Nomura's China composite leading indicator (the Nomura CLI) and a high-frequency data heat-map. Nomura designed these tools to complement each other in helping investors navigate the direction of China's economy.
With a six-month lead, the Nomura CLI has a stronger correlation with industrial production (IP) growth than China's official PMI. The CLI's turning points have an average two-month lead on IP growth turning points, while the official PMI's turning points lag those of IP growth. The number of hot indicators identified on the heat-map also helps to forecast turning points in IP growth, which of all the core monthly data is the most correlated to quarterly GDP.
The latest readings show that, after reaching a bottom in November 2011, the Nomura CLI has risen for four straight months to March 2012, while the number of hot indicators in our heat-map has also increased over this period. This is a signal that economic growth will likely rebound beyond Q1 2012, consistent with our H2 2012 GDP growth forecasts.
The Nomura CLI is available on Bloomberg with the index code "NMEICLI". Of the 32 indicators included in the heat-map, a list of those that are "hot" can also be found on Bloomberg with the index code "NMEICHI". We will update both of these tools on a monthly basis. The next update will be issued in mid-May.
"China is the world's second-largest economy, contributing more than 40% of global GDP growth last year. We believe that our new China compass report will enable our clients to get a clearer read on the pulse of China's rapidly transforming economy," said Zhiwei Zhang, Nomura's Chief China Economist.
Nomura ranked #2 in the Institutional Investor All-China Research Team poll and in FinanceAsia's Asian Fixed Income Research Poll in 2011.
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For further information please contact:
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| Name | Company | Telephone |
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| Lillian Liu | Nomura Securities Ltd. Beijing | +86 10 5866 1760 |
| Bellerina Yeo | Nomura Singapore Limited | +65 6433 6288 |
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Nomura
Nomura is a leading financial services group and the preeminent Asian-based investment bank with worldwide reach. Nomura provides a broad range of innovative solutions tailored to the specific requirements of individual, institutional, corporate and government clients through an international network in over 30 countries. Based in Tokyo and with regional headquarters in Hong Kong, London, and New York, Nomura employs over 27,000 staff worldwide. Nomura's unique understanding of Asia enables the company to make a difference for clients through three business divisions: retail, asset management, and wholesale (global markets and investment banking). For further information about Nomura, please visit www.nomura.com.
